Holiday airfares may drop after Labor Day

BY ELLEN CREAGER
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST

Ouch. The cost of a holiday flight from Detroit to Orlando is $655 round-trip for the week after Christmas.

Thanksgiving round-trips from Detroit to Los Angeles are a depressing $540.

So trying to figure out the best day to book holiday fares this year will be like trying to choose when to jump off a cliff -- it ain't gonna be pretty no matter when you do it.

Last year, prices plunged in November, just before Thanksgiving and Christmas, making everyone mad who had booked holiday tickets way ahead at higher prices. This year, that probably won't happen. Then again, it might.

Airfares overall are up about 8% this year, according to American Express.

Analysts at SmarterTravel.com predict the weeks between Labor Day and mid-October will see the lowest prices for holiday fares.

So get ready.

Tickets out of reach

I've always thought that there's a ceiling on domestic airfares. Less than $400, and people will fly. More than $400, they'll stay home, even for Christmas.

It's partly a psychological thing. If a ticket costs $399, well, that's still sort of like $350 or $320. But $400? That's like $500 or $600.

It's also, of course, a budget thing. You start charging families $655 each for plane tickets to Orlando, and I just don't think anyone is going to pay it.

Even Mickey Mouse wouldn't visit Donald Duck at those prices.

Still, airlines are feeling pretty cocky again, so they have dared to try it. They also are piling on nasty holiday surcharges of $20 to $60 to fly anytime Nov. 19-29, Dec. 17-31 and Jan. 1-3 (except Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day). That's on top of their outrageous baggage fees.

It's kind of crazy when you think about it. Do they think American travelers are suddenly rolling in dough? Have they been reading the papers? The leisure traveler is still hurting.

And I'm guessing that $655 won't hold.

How to save

If you have holiday flight plans, keep an eye on things these next few weeks:

• Go online on Tuesdays or Wednesdays. That's when airline fare sales usually start. (Fare expert Rick Seney of FareCompare.com is even more specific. He says 3 p.m. on Tuesdays is the cheapest time to buy airline tickets.)